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Ukraine’s parliament is expected to ratify a controversial minerals deal with the United States in a decisive step towards securing the latter’s long-term commitment to the war-battered country amid stalled efforts to strike a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire.
The deal, signed by Kyiv and Washington on Wednesday, pushed by US President Donald Trump and after protracted negotiations, marks an inflection point of sorts in the war, granting the US priority access to Ukraine’s critical minerals as a means of deterring future Russian aggression. However, it stops short of offering specific security guarantees and questions remain over accessing minerals in areas under Russian control.
Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha said on Thursday that the deal “marks an important milestone in Ukraine–US strategic partnership aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s economy and security”.
“We’re expecting it to be discussed and ratified by Ukraine’s parliament later today,” said Al Jazeera’s Zein Basravi, reporting from Kyiv. “The overall thinking is that if the US buys into Ukraine economically, they’ll buy into Ukrainian security.”
Ukraine managed to obtain a series of last-minute concessions on the deal, which will see the establishment of a so-called Reconstruction Investment Fund, with Ukraine no longer forced to repay billions in previous US aid and retaining “full control over its subsoil, infrastructure and natural resources”, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
Significantly, the US Treasury statement on the deal had referred to Russia’s “full-scale invasion” of Ukraine, indicating a shift from Washington’s apparent tilt away from the country in favour of Russia. However, the draft does not provide the concrete security guarantees Ukraine was seeking, according to the Reuters news agency, which saw a copy.
Questions remain over how the US will tap resources located on the territory now controlled by Russian forces. About 40 percent of Ukraine’s metal resources are now under Russian occupation, according to estimates by Ukrainian think tanks We Build Ukraine and the National Institute of Strategic Studies, citing data up to the first half of 2024.
‘Diplomatic win’
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, mocked the deal on Thursday. “Trump has broken the Kyiv regime to the point where they will have to pay for US aid with mineral resources,” he said.
“Now they (Ukrainians) will have to pay for military supplies with the national wealth of a disappearing country,” he said.
Speaking to US network NewsNation on Wednesday, Trump had said that the deal would ensure the US didn’t look “foolish” as it would get a return on its investment in the country. Asked whether the deal would “inhibit” Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Trump said, “Well, it could.”
Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Programme at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that the deal was a “diplomatic win” for Ukraine amid Trump’s efforts to mediate a peace deal, which recently saw him threaten to walk out if a deal is not done soon, expressing fears that Putin was “just tapping me along”.
“What it will probably ensure or certainly [what] Kyiv hopes it will ensure is that, if the present round of peace negotiations fails and Trump, as threatened, walks away, he will blame Russia, not Ukraine,” said Lieven.
Overall, he added, it also meant the US would “feel it has a stake in Ukraine and therefore will not simply forget about Ukraine”. “And although that’s not a security guarantee, it certainly ought to be a deterrent to future Russian aggression,” he said.
Questioned on whether the US could be seen as a reliable mediator, Andrey Baklanov, of the Association of Russian Diplomats, told Al Jazeera that Russia was “cautious”.
During Trump’s first 100 days in power, marked on Wednesday, he said there had been “no tangible results” in terms of improving relations with Russia. As for the minerals deal, he said the agreement was not “timely” since “the destiny of what we call now Ukraine is quite weak”.
War grinds on
As Ukrainian politicians scrutinise the deal, the daily grind of the war showed no sign of letting up, with Ukraine and Russia launching drone attacks on each other.
Russian drones attacked Ukraine’s Black Sea port city of Odesa early on Thursday, killing two people and injuring 15 more, emergency services said.
Earlier, an overnight Russian drone attack on Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv wounded at least 45 civilians, Ukrainian officials said.
On Thursday morning, Ukrainian drones hit a busy market in Oleshky in a Russian-controlled part of the fiercely contested Kherson region in southern Ukraine, killing at least seven people and injuring 20, according to Russian-installed governor Vladimir Saldo.
Putin has announced a three-day ceasefire for May 8-10, when Russia will hold celebrations to mark the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, one of the most sacrosanct holidays on the Russian calendar.
However, Kyiv has been holding out for an immediate unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days. Putin has said many issues need to be clarified before that can happen.
