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Tehran, Iran – Iran has continued to push back against the United States and other rival interests in the region, as a new round of attacks fuels fears of a wider conflict.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Wednesday released footage of overnight strikes on a US military base in Jordan, in what it said came in response to “aggressive actions”.
Jordan said all five ballistic missiles were intercepted, but US President Donald Trump threatened that his country’s forces would hit Iran hard in response to the strikes in Jordan.
“They’re going to get a beating,” he told Fox News, adding that his administration was weighing additional actions against Iran-aligned groups in the region, including Iraq.
Inside Iran, authorities on Wednesday afternoon reported that a missile struck a border area in the West Azerbaijan province, but there were no fatalities. Shortly after, Israel said a drone launched by the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah targeted an Israeli military vehicle in occupied southern Lebanon.
The Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have this week launched major attacks against Saudi Arabian oil facilities and Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, while the US and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday launched joint strikes on Iran-aligned forces in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters.
Late on Tuesday, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, outlined Iran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz, saying a proposal by Oman for a 50-50 management split was unacceptable.
Speaking to state television, he added that Tehran would not recognise the US-backed southern route near the Gulf country, or a third route under this proposal, while also rejecting de-mining operations in the strategic waterway by other powers.
Another round of conflict seemingly on the way
Regional mediators continue to push for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Israel war on Iran that began on February 28. But the latest flare-up of attacks suggests little appetite for direct negotiations.
Iranian authorities have reasoned that the US is committing an act of aggression by imposing a naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports.
They also accuse Washington of reneging on several commitments outlined in a memorandum of understanding that was signed in June.
These include the introduction of the southern route near Oman, the fact that no frozen Iranian funds were released, and a deal with Lebanon’s government allowing Israel to keep occupying Lebanese territory until Hezbollah is disarmed.
After the understanding fell through and attacks restarted, Iran’s leaders further developed the belief that they must “not concede an inch” on key issues, particularly on Hormuz, according to Ellie Geranmayeh.
The senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told Al Jazeera that Iran is pondering whether a long-term deal is possible with Trump, noting that the US president’s abrupt U-turns – including linking a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia to normalisation with Israel – have made the situation more complicated.
“Iran’s rejection of Oman’s proposal must be viewed in the broader context that there is an increasing belief inside the political and military establishment in Iran that another major bombing campaign by the US is coming and inevitable,” she told Al Jazeera.
Geranmayeh pointed out that decision-makers in Iran have also hardened their position, including on Iran’s nuclear programme or potential inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The increased military action in the region is the latest concerning expansion of the conflict.
“Tehran has basically decided to send some early warning shots about how messy things could get if the US returns to a bombing campaign across Iran, including capital Tehran; that essentially the next cycle will be much more destructive not just for Iran, but for the entire region,” said Geranmayeh.
Hormuz and the Caspian Sea
Iranian authorities have stressed that the Strait of Hormuz will not go back to the free and unimpeded access for all that was in place before the US and Israel began attacking Iran in late February.
During the war, Tehran has raised national security concerns as a reason for not allowing uninterrupted passage through the southern corridor, saying routes beyond effective Iranian observation could be used to support further US or Israeli military operations.
The Foreign Ministry’s Gharibabadi told state television that the country’s proposal includes all inbound traffic using a route inside Iranian waters, with part of the outbound route also controlled by Iran. Oman could apparently manage the remainder as part of that vision, but exact divisions or coordinates have not been disclosed.
The official said exercising varying degrees of control over both directions is also a defensive requirement, not a claim to Omani sovereignty.
“If the route we have proposed is not accepted, no other formula will be accepted,” said Gharibabadi. “The strait will remain closed, and we are prepared for a restart of war”.
He cited a British-French initiative involving 34 countries aimed at conducting de-mining operations in the strait, and said any foreign warship, equipment or vessel attempting this would be treated as a “legitimate target”.
Over the past week, Iran has also considered how to approach the first war-related incident in the Caspian Sea to its northern shores, after Ukraine’s military struck a vessel, killing one person and wounding several others.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attack was a hit against an alleged military cargo vessel outbound from Russia, which in 2022 launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But Iran said it was a commercial ship carrying iron, and local media identified the victim as Nima Moradi, a 23-year-old man on his first sea trade voyage through what was believed to be a safe maritime corridor.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post on Tuesday that he was “assured” by his Ukrainian counterpart Andrii Sybiha that the attack was “unintentional”. But the chief diplomat told the European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Kyiv must accept responsibility and face repercussions.
The ECFR’s Geranmayeh said there are deliberations in Tehran over whether the attack by Ukraine was a calculated move to open a new front of active conflict between Europe and Iran.
“I have no doubts that they will respond, but I think the Iranians are currently deliberating how to shape that response in a way that they won’t trigger the British or Germans to join future Israeli and US military campaigns,” she said.
“I think there is an aversion in Tehran for the Ukraine and Iran wars to converge, because I think that makes settling it much more difficult.”
