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When factories were roaring, Michigan – home to three large automakers – was at the centre of manufacturing in the United States.
So when globalisation took over and many US factories shut down as outsourcing led to the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs in the 1980s and 1990s, the Midwestern state became the symbol of what happens to communities during deindustrialisation.
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President Donald Trump spoke in Michigan at a General Motors (GM) plant on Monday to highlight perceived achievements and promote his economic policies – a move that underscores the political and economic weight of the state.
“We are doing unbelievably well as a country,” Trump said as supporters held signs reading “American Jobs”.
“We’re building more auto factories and more plants than at any time in the history of our country.”
Trump won Michigan in 2016 and lost it when he lost the presidency four years later, only to reclaim the state and the White House in the 2024 election.
But the US president’s approval ratings in the state have been nosediving despite trade policies aimed at reviving industrialisation and providing factory jobs, which would especially benefit Michigan.
An EPIC-MRA poll last month showed Trump’s approval rating at 33 percent less than two years after he won the state with 49.73 percent of the votes.
“The economy is largely responsible for that,” David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University, north of Detroit, said of Trump’s dwindling popularity in Michigan.
“There are certainly some folks who are concerned on the foreign policy side and a few other marginal issues, but I think the president’s approval generally tracks with economic indicators, and Trump is no exception.”
The White House is touting billions of dollars in investments in Michigan’s economy, including expansions by the “Big Three” automakers – GM, Ford and Stellantis.
Trump has been calling the US the “hottest country” in the world, saying his administration is attracting trillions of dollars in capital into the country.
But Dulio said that approach does not resonate with voters.
“People don’t connect those announcements with those gaudy numbers to what’s happening in their everyday life like they do gas prices or grocery prices,” he told Al Jazeera.
Besides being an industrial hub, Michigan is also a major gateway for commerce between the US and Canada. So Trump’s trade war with Canada has created uncertainty in Michigan, dampening celebrations over Monday’s opening of a new bridge between the two countries over the Detroit River.
Last year, the United Auto Workers (UAW), one of the largest unions in North America, which has traditionally aligned with Democrats and especially rebuked Trump, welcomed the president’s car tariffs last year.
Dulio said that although the push to revive manufacturing may, on paper, appeal to people in Michigan, voters are more focused on their immediate needs.
“Folks are seeing their gas prices go up. They’ve got uncertainty around tariffs and the conflict with Iran, and I think it’s a tough environment for the president right now,” he said.
So far, Trump’s policies have not translated into a significant near-term employment boost. According to federal jobs data, the economy lost 2,000 manufacturing jobs in May and added 3,000 in June.
Trump’s low approval ratings in Michigan matter because it is a swing state that may help decide the presidency in 2028.
More immediately, Michigan has an open Senate seat in the November elections – one of four races labelled as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report.
The seat is currently held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters. If the Republicans manage to flip it, they would likely block the Democrats’ path to a Senate majority.
The Senate race will pit Republican candidate Mike Rogers against the winner of the Democratic primary – Congresswoman Haley Stevens or public health advocate Abdul El-Sayed, who are locked in a bitter fight for their party’s nomination.
For now, Trump is trying to make the case for his policies and his party in a state that has been essential to his political rise.
On Monday, he told Michiganders that previous presidents did nothing about other countries “stealing” American jobs.
“At long last, Michigan finally has a president who stands up for Michigan auto workers and puts America first,” Trump said.
The US president also marked his first 100 days in office at a rally in Michigan last year.
“Trump is coming here for a reason,” Dulio said. “He has had success in Michigan in the past. It was arguably central to both of his electoral victories. It’s also sort of ground zero for his trade and manufacturing message.”
