UK Labour leadership nominations begin: Who’s running and how it works

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s announcement last month that he plans to step down as prime minister and leader of the Labour Party has set in motion the process to select his successor.

The successful candidate will take charge of the governing party, which holds a strong majority in parliament, and will become the United Kingdom’s seventh prime minister in a decade.

What’s happening?

Starmer became prime minister on July 5, 2024, after a landslide Labour election victory following 14 years of Conservative Party rule. He announced plans to resign on June 22 amid growing pressure over painful local election defeats for Labour, domestic policy shifts and Starmer’s appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States. Mandelson was sacked over his friendship with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Starmer’s resignation means Labour must select a new leader, who will then be positioned to take over as prime minister.

Nominations for party leader officially opened on Thursday.

How does the nomination process work?

Candidates, who must be elected, serving Labour MPs, need the backing of at least 20 percent of their party’s members of parliament – in this case 81 other MPs.

They must also be nominated by at least three affiliated organisations, including two trade unions, or by 5 percent of the party’s local branches.

Labour MPs can put forward candidates until Wednesday while affiliates can select names on Wednesday and July 16.

In the event of a race between multiple candidates, Labour members and affiliated unions will hold a vote between August 6 and 27 with results expected on August 29.

Any person who has been a member of the Labour Party for at least six months before an election is scheduled may vote in the election.

If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of first-preference votes, lower-ranked candidates are eliminated and their votes redistributed until a winner emerges.

Who are the likely candidates?

So far, the only declared nominee is Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester known as “King of the North” and one of Labour’s most popular politicians. He said that if he wins, he plans to move some of the prime ministerial operations at 10 Downing Street to the northern city of Manchester.

Until recently, Burnham was not eligible to stand because he was not an MP. But he won a crucial by-election to represent Makerfield in Greater Manchester in the House of Commons on June 18, making him eligible to contest for the leadership.

Since then, his momentum has rocketed. Numerous key Labour figures have thrown their weight behind Burnham, including Wes Streeting and Al Carns, both former ministers in Starmer’s government who had themselves been weighing potential bids.

Burnham is thus seen as the clear frontrunner and, by many, the prime minister-in-waiting.

Paul Whiteley, emeritus professor of government at the UK’s University of Essex, told Al Jazeera that it appears “increasingly likely” Burnham will be chosen as leader without a rival candidate.

Names that have been floated as potential challengers include Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, but neither has signalled she intends to mount a challenge. Rayner has indicated her support for Burnham.

What does Burnham stand for?

Burnham, part of Labour’s “soft left” faction, has positioned himself to the left of Starmer, advocating a process of “devolution” to tackle regional disparities, an enormous social housing programme and expanded social care.

During a speech in June, he pledged to “bring about the biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen”. Part of this will be dividing the Prime Minister’s Office between London and Manchester.

“We need a new determination to raise living standards of every single person in this land,” Burnham said.

While Burnham has focused less on foreign policy during his career, he has consistently backed NATO and was critical of the UK’s exit from the European Union. In a recent interview, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said she had spoken with Burnham and he is “100 percent behind unwavering support for Ukraine”.

Burnham has also said Britain needs to boost its defence capacity due to recent geopolitical developments, such as the US-Israel war on Iran and Russia’s war on Ukraine.

On Israel and Palestine, Burnham was among a handful of British politicians who backed recognising Palestinian statehood in 2015, describing it as “a right” while slamming the expansions of Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law, as “key obstacles” to a two-state solution. At the same time, he opposed boycotting Israel, saying efforts in this regard were “the wrong response”.

“I can’t judge things of that enormity from where I am as mayor of Greater Manchester,” he said. “But I do have concerns about the disproportionate nature of what has happened in terms of the destruction, and there has to be a full process of investigation and accountability.”

In the run-up to the Makerfield by-election, Burnham declined to describe Israel’s war on Gaza as a “genocide”. He has also indicated that his chief of staff will be James Purnell, who chaired the lobbying group Labour Friends of Israel from 2002 to 2004.

What happens if no one puts themselves forward except Burnham?

If Burnham is the only nominee, he becomes party leader automatically and prime minister by extension. He could be sworn in by July 20.

But if Burnham moves forward uncontested, there could be doubts about his legitimacy as Labour tries to make up ground against the ascendant anti-immigration, far-right Reform UK party.

A recent survey by Lord Ashcroft Polls, founded by former Conservative Party Deputy Chairman Michael Ashcroft, found that only 27 percent of Britons and 45 percent of Labour voters believe Burnham should become premier without a leadership race.

But Whiteley told Al Jazeera that an uncontested Burnham victory would probably have little impact on the public’s perception of his legitimacy, citing previous prime ministers such as Theresa May and Gordon Brown, who also took office without facing rivals.

Will there be a general election?

Probably not immediately. The next prime minister will not be required to call a general election until August 2029 although he or she could face pressure to seek a fresh mandate sooner.

If Burnham takes over midterm as expected without a national election, that would make him the fifth prime minister in a decade to enter Downing Street without winning a general election as party leader. He would follow Theresa May in 2016, Boris Johnson in 2019, and Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak in 2022 in doing so.

According to the Lord Ashcroft survey, a majority of Britons now believe the next prime minister should call early elections within the next year or so with 40 percent preferring elections “as soon as practically possible”.

However, Whiteley said, “given the disruption and costs associated with an immediate general election this is very unlikely to happen”.

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